The electronic insides and metal complexion that make up Herr Doktor Krieg

[austin_dern]

And for a final report on The Price Is Right for the season, unless I've misread the upcoming airdates schedule:

Period	1st Spinner	2nd Spinner	3rd Spinner
Month	8	10	12
Season	116	129	131

It took all season but the freakish early lead the second spinner took in the Showcase Showdown was finally leveled out, and in the last month (with some loose change) the third spinner barely eked out a lead. When I tracked this most of the 2008-09 season the first spinner won about a fifth the time, second a quarter, and third a third of the time; the 2009-10 season, it's so close to a third-a third-a third that I suspect the difference isn't statistically significant. I haven't tested that, though.

The lowest winning spins remain, for a contestant not facing any overspins by other contestants, 55 cents for an uncontested win and 30 cents for a tie. Against one overspin, the lowest win is 40 cents. Against two overspins, the lowest win is 10 cents.

As for winning the Showcase round:

All cases:
Period	1st Revealed	2nd Revealed	Double Overbid
Month	9	6	0
Season	121	54	12
Unforced cases:
Period	1st Revealed	2nd Revealed
Month	1	2
Season	67	44

The preference for the first-revealed winning is just overwhelming, although interestingly when we rule out the ``forced'' cases where one contestant overbid or there was a dollar bid or other oddities like that, it's actually more likely the second-revealed won than the first did.

These totals have to be treated as a bit provisional, I hate to say: adding it up I find I have 187 Showcase revelations but 376 Showcase Showdowns, indicating I somehow managed to add things up wrong in at least one case. I can probably track it down. The error makes no appreciable difference in the point of the outcome, yet, what's the point of this tracking except getting this arithmetic right? I don't know how to answer that either.

I would like to point out the season ended in fine form --- with one contestant overbidding the Showcase, and the other managing a rare Double Showcase Win.

Trivia: Maize probably arrived in China in the 1530s; it is definitely referred to by 1555. Source: An Edible History Of Humanity, Tom Standage.

Currently Reading: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Carmen M Reinhart, Kenneth S Rogoff.

Comments

[chefmongoose.livejournal.com]

Oh, the difference between 116 and 129/131 is fairly significant, but indeed, the gaps are a lot closer this time.

--Chi

[austin-dern.livejournal.com]

I'm going to have to give up and program a simulator to play jillions of these games and figure out the actual long-term proportions. Of course, to do that I'm going to have to figure out the likelihood that a contestant with a free choice decides to spin again ... it's pretty much certain at 5 cents, and pretty much certainly not at 95 cents, but where does it break?

(It seems to me --- without having actually run the data --- that contestants spin again pretty consistently up to 60 cents, and then drop off rapidly. It might be as simple as under 65, spin again, over 65, never.)

[chefmongoose.livejournal.com]

I think we figured the value out for the 2nd contest as to the optimum, but not the first. The third contestant is reduced to no true option.

[austin-dern.livejournal.com]

Yeah, that in a two-player game, with 1 and 2 as the only possible spins, the latter contestant has the better shot at things, which is an interesting state of affairs since the second contestant is the one whose freedom of action is almost constrained away.